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I've been following this Substack since November - I was born in AridoAmerica and I already believed in cyclical history along the lines of Spengler and Toynbee, so naturally your ideas about what kind of "high culture" is arising in my homeland are quite interesting. Keep it up!

I do find a bit more to disagree with in this post than your others, though. I think you are spot on about Europe post-1945 (and especially post-1989) having contented itself with being a sort of outpost of the United States, militarily weak and aping American culture. And yet I don't foresee this as being nearly as long-lasting of a state of affairs as it was in Latin America (where it ran from 1898 to the present.) The problem is that there are other people besides the US who want to dominate Europe - as in fact Russia is trying to do right now by invading Ukraine, and expansionist Middle Eastern or North African countries may soon do. And the US has shown that it is not actually up to committing the amount of military force that would be needed to keep these rivals out of a weak and mostly-demilitarized Europe.

I wrote an article at my own Substack a few months ago called "The Poland Paradox: How Faraway Allies Make Small Countries Less Safe."

https://twilightpatriot.substack.com/p/the-poland-paradox

The gist of it is that it's a bad idea for a small country, fearing conquest by a larger neighbor, to rely on an alliance with an big country that's a long ways away and only has a marginal interest in preventing the smaller country from getting conquered. (As Poland learned the hard way in 1939-45, and Ukraine is learning now, and Taiwan, South Korea, etc. may soon also learn.) Even if the large country acts for a while like it is very concerned with projecting its power (or defending its values or however you say it) there is just too big of a chance that it will balk when someone else challenges it for hegemony.

So United States dominance of Europe won't be nearly as long-lasting as US dominance of South America. The geography is just wrong - Europe will indeed be dominated, but it can't be America's sandbox because there are too many other rivals that also want to dominate it.

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